Method for calculating the possibility of attacks in a MANET under uncertainty conditions

Authors

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.20535/2411-1031.2025.13.2.344718

Keywords:

MANET, information security, fuzzy sets, attack probability, modeling, membership functions, tuple, risk, adaptive protection

Abstract

One of the most significant challenges for modern information technologies is the ability of systems to make rational and adaptive decisions under uncertainty. Humans intuitively cope with incomplete, contradictory, or vague information – a capability that has inspired the development of intelligent models. Today, science is tasked with creating algorithms and models capable of mimicking such cognitive flexibility and implementing it in cyberspace, particularly in decision support systems and information security frameworks. In the context of mobile ad hoc networks (MANETs), which operate under conditions of high dynamism, unstable communication links, and limited resources, the timely detection of potential attacks and assessment of the system’s security level is a critical concern. One of the distinctive features of MANETs is the lack of fixed infrastructure, which significantly complicates the application of traditional security methods. Under such conditions, effective information protection requires new methodologies capable of functioning amid uncertainty. This paper proposes a method for assessing the probability of attacks in MANETs based on fuzzy logic. The method includes the construction of a tuple of fuzzy sets describing key network parameters (node vulnerabilities, trust levels, behavioral anomalies, etc.), risk modeling based on expert evaluations, determination of membership functions, and aggregation of results to derive an integral security indicator. Triangular and trapezoidal membership functions are used to represent fuzzy parameters. The calculation results are presented in the form of graphical dependencies, allowing a visual interpretation of risk levels and confidence in the assessment. The proposed approach enables the assessment of a mobile network’s vulnerability even in the presence of incomplete or fuzzy information about its state and threats. The methodology can be applied to build adaptive intrusion detection systems and support decision-making in data-limited environments.

Author Biographies

Volodymyr Akhramovych, State university “Kiev Aviation Institute”, Kyiv

doctor of technical sciences, professor, professor at the academic department of cybersecurity

Vadym Akhramovych, National academy of statistics, accounting and auditing, Kyiv

head of the computing center

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Published

2025-11-27

How to Cite

Akhramovych, V., & Akhramovych, V. (2025). Method for calculating the possibility of attacks in a MANET under uncertainty conditions. Collection "Information Technology and Security", 13(2), 334–345. https://doi.org/10.20535/2411-1031.2025.13.2.344718

Issue

Vol. 13 No. 2 (2025)

Section

ELECTRONIC COMMUNICATION SYSTEMS AND NETWORKS

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