Scenario research based on analysis of information space
Keywords:Scenario analysis, analytical activity, information operations, network of terms, scenario modeling.
A method to developing scenarios for the development of a situation is proposed, which allows solving a problem of formation and ranking scenarios for implementing impacts on objects that correspond to the selected key concept in the automatic processing mode. From the array of documents belonging to a certain subject area, identified key concepts, which can be separate words, bigrams or trigrams. The subject area graph formed, between the received key concepts, using weight criteria. By expert evaluation, the graph edited and numerical values assigned to his edges, to form a network of subject domain concepts. Within the framework of the model, the weighing of individual network nodes corresponding to the terms is done using a modified algorithm HITS (Hyperlink-Induced Topic Search). Modification of the algorithm provides that when calculating the weight value of each node, the weight of the edges taken into account. To reduce the effect of the uneven distribution of weight values on the result, the weight of the node is multiplied by a monotonically increasing, less steep than a linear function. Building an ontology allows taking into account general factors and interrelations between them and develop several computer scenarios considering alternative possible outcomes. Open-source network analysis software package Gephi, ontology development environment Protégé and an original package of specially developed Perl modules are used for simulation and visualization. To test the method a network of domain concepts was formed by scanning the Internet on the topic BREXIT and then analyzed. Visualization of the subject domain allows the analyst to explore the resulting scenarios and generate results in a convenient form for decision-making. The method can be used in scenario modeling, information security analysis and decision-making support.
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