Nonlinear properties of agent-based news distribution model

Authors

  • Dmytro Lande Institute for information recording of National academy of science of Ukraine, Kyiv,, Ukraine
  • Vadym Dodonov Institute for information recording of National academy of science of Ukraine, Kyiv,, Ukraine

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.20535/2411-1031.2016.4.2.109908

Keywords:

News, news distribution, multi-agent model, Hurst index, wavelet-scaling.

Abstract

Along with studying common statistic properties of time-series, wavelet-analysis and fractal analysis has been recently used with increased frequency for solving forecasting problems, revealing periodicities, anomalies. The paper deals with Nonlinear (fractal) characteristics (Hurst exponent) and wavelet-scaleograms of the information distribution agent-based model, suggested by the authors. Let us consider an agent-based model with the following performance parameters. Informative messages can be replicated (by way of “reposting”), they can contain links both to informative messages of similar content and to other objects of the real and the virtual world, they can “die” due to ageing etc. The agent’s evolution will be connected with the events, which happened to such agent. As regards to the principal characteristic, let us introduce the “energy”, which reflects the timeliness of the message and the degree of interest to it. It goes without saying, that ageing of information or negative reaction will reduce the message’s energy, and positive reaction or appearance of the link to such message will increase its energy. The authors have studied the effect of Hurst exponent change depending upon the model parameters, which have semantic meaning. The paper also considers fractal characteristics of real information streams. It describes how the Hurst exponent dynamics depends on these information streams state in practice. The authors have suggested an approach to modeling and further forecast of real information streams by changing the model parameters during its operation. With the help of the model and case-studies it has been shown, that it is possible to reveal changes in behavior of real information streams by analyzing changes in the dynamics of Hurst exponent. The diagram of Hurst exponent dynamics has been compared with the wavelet-scaleogram. A more effective algorithm of Hurst exponent evaluation permits recommending constant observation over this parameter dynamics in course of analytical work. Besides, it allows forecasting the information streams’ behavior on the grounds of Hurst parameter value.

Author Biographies

Dmytro Lande, Institute for information recording of National academy of science of Ukraine, Kyiv,

doctor of technical science,
senior researcher, head
of the specialized modeling
tools department

Vadym Dodonov, Institute for information recording of National academy of science of Ukraine, Kyiv,

lead engineer of the specialized
modeling tools department

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Published

2016-12-31

How to Cite

Lande, D., & Dodonov, V. (2016). Nonlinear properties of agent-based news distribution model. Collection "Information Technology and Security", 4(2), 137–146. https://doi.org/10.20535/2411-1031.2016.4.2.109908

Issue

Section

INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY