Using data from open sources for decision-making under information warfare
Keywords:Open source, decision support system, information operation, content monitoring system, expert estimate
A review of methods, means, and tools that make it possible to use data from open sources for decision support in weakly-structured subject domains is presented. We show that presently it is impossible to completely replace expert data with data from open sources in the process of decision-making. Selection of experts and organization of expert examination require considerable time and funds. However, due to insufficient level of natural language processing technology development, the need to involve experts and knowledge engineers in the process of decision-making remains (even though significant role in this process is already played by data from open sources). Information, obtained from both experts and open sources, is processed, aggregated, and used as the basis to provide recommendations for the decision-maker regarding the selection of some particular decision variant or planning of further actions in general. As an example of a weakly-structured subject domain, we consider the sphere of information warfare, particularly focusing on information operation detection. For this domain we propose a hybrid decision support methodology, using both expert data and data from open sources. The methodology is based on the hierarchic decomposition of the main goal of information operation. The goal is, usually, to change the opinion of the target audience about the information operation object. Based on data obtained from experts and open sources, the knowledge base of the subject domain is built in the form of a weighted graph. It represents a hierarchy of factors that influence the main goal. Beside numeric value, the impact of each sub-goal in the graph is also characterized by certain delay and duration. With these parameters taken into consideration, the degree of main goal achievement is calculated, and changes of target parameters of information operation object are monitored. Usage of the proposed methodology is demonstrated on the example of detection and analysis actions intended to discredit the National academy of sciences of Ukraine. For this purpose, automated decision support and content monitoring tools are used
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